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Sunday, October 30, 2011

It's the Most Wonderful Time of the Year!

Apologies to the newly minted world champion St. Louis Cardinals, but I've already moved on from the WS. At 12:01 AM this morning, the baseball offseason began. For me, this is by far the best time of the year. I love the fast-paced nature of the offseason wheeling and dealing and the way it contrasts so much with the long, slow pace of the regular season. One of the reasons I consider the national pastime my favorite sport is that baseball is definitely the most active when it comes to trading, free agency, and player movement in general. Instead of wrapping up the baseball postseason with some Game 7 talk (not nearly as good as Game 6, but that's tough to do), I thought I should preview the offseason activities with possible landing spots for some of this year's biggest free agents.

Let's start with the two biggest free agent targets out there: Albert Pujols and Prince 'Largest Vegetarian Alive' Fielder. Both guys played 1B in the NL Central this past year, and had very good seasons. Pujols was hurt for some time, but came back strong and proved he can take a team to the World Series title with his superhuman effort in Game 3. Prince had a seriously MVP-caliber season in 2011, batting a career high .299 with 38 HR and 120 RBIs. He also drew over 100 walks and had an OPS (On-base % + Slugging %) of .981. Both of these guys are studs and will get huge money this offseason, but the big questions are who is better and where they will land. Personally, I think Pujols is the better all-around player and he definitely has a more extensive and impressive track record than Fielder does. When it comes to who will be the better signing or generate more interest this winter, I think it'll be a much closer match-up. Fielder is younger and has more offensive upside, but he is limited in the field and could become Mo Vaughn 2.0. Pujols is older, but is more consistent. I think Albert will end up staying in St. Louis, as I doubt the Cardinals will part ways with the face of their franchise and someone who has the chance to go down as one of the best players of all time. He will be richly paid, but I think he will be inclined to stay as well. Prince, on the other hand, is more than likely done in Milwaukee. There are a few suitors out there for the big man, but the usual suspects (Yankees, Red Sox) are already locked into long-term commitments at 1st. He could very well become the new first basemen for the Brewers' division foes, the Chicago Red Sox Cubs. Theo Epstein & Jed Hoyer were hired to blow up the roster and start anew, and Fielder could be a great 4-hole power hitter to anchor their lineup for the next 6 or 7 years. Two other clubs that I could reasonably see Fielder signing with are in the AL: the Anaheim Angels (I refuse to call them by their geographic monstrosity of a name) and the Baltimore Orioles. Anaheim is in need of a power bat to solidify their lineup, and Prince could split time with Mark Trumbo at 1st and be the most fearsome DH in the AL. Anaheim has been outbid by the Yankees and Red Sox on multiple hitters in the past few years (Mark Teixeira & Carl Crawford) and their owner definitely seems to want to land at least one big-time name. Baltimore is always a possibility for a big hitter and has spent serious money in the past few winters, but the front office hasn't always spent wisely. Vlad is probably not coming back at DH, and Derrek Lee was only a temporary solution at first. Fielder would be lethal in that ballpark, but I'm not so sure he'll agree to such a downgrade in franchise. It'll really be interesting to see where he goes.

The other marquee free agent hitter is former New York Mets shortstop Jose Reyes. I'm saying former because I really don't think the Mets make a strong play for Reyes this offseason. The lightning-fast SS had an up and down season this year, only playing 126 games due to injuries. When he was fully healthy, prior to the All-Star break, Reyes was lighting up the NL and batting over .350 while stealing 30 bases. There were many rumors of the Mets trading Reyes before the deadline, but they held onto him for the remainder of the season. I think the main suitor for the shortstop this offseason will the same team that pursued him so heavily during the season: the San Francisco Giants. The Giants are one year out from a World Series win and are loaded with aces both in the starting staff and the bullpen, so they give Reyes his best chance at contending right away. The other possible destinations for Jose are less appealing, for various reasons. The St. Louis Cardinals could really use a good leadoff hitter and have a hole at shortstop. I know, they just won the World Series on Friday, but they will have a lot of money left if Pujols skips town. If he doesn't, it'll be hard for the Cards to make a competitive offer on Reyes. The other two clubs I can see Reyes playing for are both in dire straits financially: the LA Dodgers and New York Mets. The Dodgers have a good young lineup, but are weak up the middle. Owner Frank McCourt is not exactly flush with cash right now, so I'm not sure if his Dodgers will be able to afford Reyes' steep price. The Wilpons, owners of the Mets, have similar money problems and it seems like the front office has decided to keep David Wright over Reyes. There is one more place where I personally would love to see Reyes land, but I'll talk about that in a bit.

The starting pitching market this winter is pretty thin, with Rangers ace lefty CJ Wilson headlining the class. He will most likely test the free agent market, as there have been rumors of disagreements with management recently. He is the prime target of the New York Yankees, and any other team that needs a good starter. I think Wilson will end up with my Yanks, as they will pay him the most. The Yankees need to stabilize their starting rotation after CC Sabathia and Wilson is their best option in free agency. Sabathia can opt out of his contract and become a free agent this winter, but it has been widely reported that the Yankees are trying to sign him before that happens. I think that the Yankees will get it done and up CC's dollars without necessarily adding the extra years he wants.

Speaking of the Yankees, they picked up the 2012 options on 2B Robinson Cano and RF Nick Swisher today. It was a given that the Yanks would pick up Cano's option since he has blossomed into the best 2B in the AL and is making an extremely club-friendly $14 million next year. Swisher's option was more of a question mark. He is making around $10 million in 2012 and plays a decent right field. He hits in the bottom of the Yankees order and will most likely not be back after next year. I wish the Yankees went for more of a splash with the RF position, and although I love Swish's personality and what he brings to the dugout (namely, fun), he isn't the best option available. There has long been talk of Derek Jeter moving to the outfield once he becomes ineffective at shortstop, and I think now is the perfect time for that switch. Jeter could play a serviceable left field, where his arm would not need to be stellar for him to be effective. Granderson could stay in center and Gardner could easily move to right. This would open up the shortstop position for Jose Reyes. The Yankees need to find a long-term replacement for Jeter sooner than later, and Reyes is a game changer with his speed. It would make for an interesting experiment, but I no longer think it is in play. Too bad.

Be sure to check back here frequently this baseball offseason for all the hot stove news and opinion from your friends at Bobby V's Fake Stache!

-Cote

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